5 November 2012

Probability, Perception and False Positives

An understanding of probability empowers people to make informed choices in matters of great importance, including health screening, insurance, major weather events and terrorist threat. Unfortunately it has been shown that this understanding of probability eludes even some of our most educated professionals and decision-makers Perceptions of Probability and Risk There is a considerable body of work studying people’s perceptions of probability and risk, particularly by Amos Tversky and the Nobel prize-winning Daniel Kahnemann. This has uncovered many systematic errors humans make in judging the relative probabilities of uncertain events. The brain’s tendency to find patterns results in heuristics or […]