inference
5 February 2018
To quote Willy Wonka, “A little magic now and then is relished by the best of men [and women].” Any frequent reader of this blog will know that I am of a pragmatic nature when it comes to using statistics. For most people the Central Limit Theorem can remain in the realms of magic. I have never taught it, though at times I have waved my hands past it. Students who want that sort of thing can read about it in their textbooks or look it up online. The New Zealand school curriculum does not include it, as I explained […]
25 October 2016
The recent article in the Listener highlights again the need for all citizens to be statistically literate. In particular I believe statistical literacy should be a compulsory part of all journalists’ training. I have written before about this. I was happy to see letters to the Editor in the 22 October issue of the Listener condemning the sensationalist cover, which was not supported in the article, and even less supported in the original research. I like the Listener, and subscribe, but this was badly done! The following was written by a fellow statistician, John Maindonald and published here with his permission. […]
9 November 2015
Inference is THE big idea of statistics. This is where people come unstuck. Most people can accept the use of summary descriptive statistics and graphs. They can understand why data is needed. They can see that the way a sample is taken may affect how things turn out. They often understand the need for control groups. Most statistical concepts or ideas are readily explainable. But inference is a tricky, tricky idea. Well actually – it doesn’t need to be tricky, but the way it is generally taught makes it tricky. Procedural competence with zero understanding I cast my mind back […]
2 February 2015
The following is a guest post by Tony Hak of Rotterdam School of Management. I know Tony would love some discussion about it in the comments. I remain undecided either way, so would like to hear arguments. GOOD REASONS FOR NOT TEACHING SIGNIFICANCE TESTING It is now well understood that p-values are not informative and are not replicable. Soon null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) will be obsolete and will be replaced by the so-called “new” statistics (estimation and meta-analysis). This requires that undergraduate courses in statistics now already must teach estimation and meta-analysis as the preferred way to present and analyze empirical […]
17 March 2014
Recently I was discussing the process we use in a statistical enquiry. The ideal is that we start with a problem and follow the statistical enquiry cycle through the steps Problem, Plan, Data collection, Analysis and Conclusion, which then may lead to other enquiries. I have previously written a post suggesting that the cyclical nature of the process was overstated. The context of our discussion was a video I am working on, that acknowledges that often we start, not at the beginning, but in the middle, with a set of data. This may be because in an educational setting it […]
21 October 2013
Aeroplanes cause hot weather In Christchurch we have a weather phenomenon known as the “Nor-wester”, which is a warm dry wind, preceding a cold southerly change. When the wind is from this direction, aeroplanes make their approach to the airport over the city. Our university is close to the airport in the direct flightpath, so we are very aware of the planes. A new colleague from South Africa drew the amusing conclusion that the unusual heat of the day was caused by all the planes flying overhead. Statistics experts and educators spend a lot of time refuting claims of causation. […]
5 August 2013
The whole may be greater than the sum of the parts, but the whole still needs those parts. A reflective teacher will think carefully about when to concentrate on the whole, and when on the parts. Golf If you were teaching someone golf, you wouldn’t spend days on a driving range, never going out on a course. Your student would not get the idea of what the game is, or why they need to be able to drive straight and to a desired length. Nor would it be much fun! Similarly if the person only played games of golf it […]
17 June 2013
I’m kidding about poets. But lots of people need to understand the three basic areas of statistics, Chance, Data and Evidence. Recently Tony Greenfield, an esteemed applied statistician, (with his roots in Operations Research) posted the following request on a statistics email list: “I went this week to the exhibition and conference in the NEC run by The Engineer magazine. There were CEOs of engineering companies of all sizes, from small to massive. I asked a loaded question: “Why should every engineer be a competent applied statistician?” Only one, from more than 100 engineers, answered: “We need to analyse any […]
18 March 2013
Confidence Intervals Confidence intervals are needed because there is variation in the world. Nearly all natural, human or technological processes result in outputs which vary to a greater or lesser extent. Examples of this are people’s heights, students’ scores in a well written test and weights of loaves of bread. Sometimes our inability or lack of desire to measure something down to the last microgram will leave us thinking that there is no variation, but it is there. For example we would check the weights of chocolate bars to the nearest gram, and may well find that there is no […]
28 January 2013
All journalists should be required to pass a course in basic statistics before they are let loose on the unsuspecting public. I am not talking about the kind of statistics course that mathematical statisticians are talking about. This does not involve calculus, R or anything tricky requiring a post-graduate degree. I am talking about a statistics course for citizens. And journalists. 🙂 I have thought about this for some years. My father was a journalist, and fairly innumerate unless there was a dollar sign involved. But he was of the old school, who worked their way up the ranks. These […]